Stats News

RealtyTrac: 1 Million Lost Homes Since Yearend '08

March 9, 2010

More than 1 million U.S. consumers have lost their homes to foreclosure since the end of 2008, according to new figures compiled by RealtyTrac, Irvine, Calif. About a fifth of those foreclosures occurred in California, according to figures from MDA DataQuick. Experts believe that unless loan modifications are more successful, that four- to five-million more could lose their homes over the next five years. According to a report in The Orange County Register, quoting RealtyTrac information, banks took title to 918,376 REOs nationwide in 2009, a 6.6% increase from 2008, when 861,664 U.S. homes were lost to foreclosure. In January, the latest month for which figures are available, banks took control of 87,648 REO units nationwide.

Freddie Survey Finds Rates Under 5% Again

March 4, 2010

Picture of Frank Nothaft The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dipped back below 5% once again during the week ended March 4, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates are now back at levels seen two weeks ago, according to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. The average 30-year FRM rate in the latest week was 4.97%, down from 5.05% the week previous and 5.15% a year ago. The average weekly 15-year FRM rate was 4.33%, down from 4.40% the previous week and 4.72% a year ago. The average rate for a five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage was 4.11%, down from 4.16% the previous week and 5.08% a year ago. The average one-year Treasury ARM rate was 4.27%, up from 4.15% the previous week but down from 4.86% a year ago. Average points were 0.7 for the two fixed rate products and 0.6 for five-year Treasury hybrids and one-year Treasury ARMs.

Clear Capital: National Year-Over-Year Price Increase Reaches 5%

March 4, 2010

There are flat quarter-over-quarter price changes against year-over-year home price gains of 5% said the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index Market Report. This is based on data through February 2010. According to the Truckee, Calif.-based data provider all four regions posted very consistent 1.4% quarterly price changes, which company analysts called encouraging. Despite the slowdown due to negative economic news and the threat of more real estate owned properties hitting the market "prices have remained positive through the first two months of the year," said Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital. Providence, R.I., rose to the top of the highest performing markets list with a 6.1% quarterly price change. In Los Angeles, prices gained 2.2% for the quarter, giving California five of the 15 highest performing markets. REO saturation edged up in 11 of 15 of these markets this month by an average of 1.3%. At the same time REO saturation is expected to increase this month, while traditional non-distressed sales wait to be listed in the spring and summer months, the report says. An increase in demand may precede the end of the April tax credit deadline when home prices may dip slightly into negative territory before getting an added boost back. The Boston area, one of the first to see prices drop at the beginning of the downturn, saw yearly home prices recover 6.9%.

Fannie Purchases Fell in January

March 4, 2010

Fannie Mae purchased $54.9 billion of mortgages from its seller/servicers during January, a 23% drop from December but a significant improvement over the same month last year. In December the GSE bought $71.8 billion in loans, while in January 2009 - with the credit markets still reeling - it purchased just $28.8 billion. Fannie's purchase volume is a reflection of origination activity in the primary market. Mortgage and housing economists anticipate that residential loan volume will total anywhere from $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion this year, depending on where interest rates and employment wind up. Meanwhile, in its most recent activity report, Fannie noted that the serious delinquency rate on its single-family loans rose only 9 basis points in December to 5.38%, after jumping 135 bps over the previous five months. (The GSE's delinquency figures lag by one month.) It is the smallest monthly increase since July 2008 when the percentage of Fannie loans 90 days or more past stood at 1.45%. The GSE expects its serious delinquency rate will remain high in 2010, but the growth of that rate will moderate. "We anticipate that the pace of loans transitioning out of serious delinquency status will increase as the number of foreclosures and problem loan workouts that we complete increases," Fannie said in a recent earnings statement. The monthly activity report also shows that delinquency rates on Fannie multifamily loans fell 3 bps in December to 0.63%. Fannie issued $47.6 billion in mortgage-backed securities in January, down from $55.4 billion in the previous month. In 2009, Fannie MBS issuance totaled $807.9 billion, compared to $542.8 billion in 2008.

Refinancing Seen Boosting Loan Applications in Week

March 3, 2010

Refinancings drove a week-to-week increase in loan applications, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey found. MBA's Market Composite Index for the week of Feb. 26, 2010, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 15.5% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 17.2% from the previous week, as long-term rates fell back below the 5% line. However, commented Michael Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics, "Purchase activity remains subdued, with application volumes remaining within the narrow range seen in the last few months." The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.0% from one week earlier. The market share of refi applications was 69.1% of total applications, up from 68.1% the previous week. The market share of applications for adjustable-rate mortgages increased to 4.8% from the previous week's 4.7%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is 4.95%, down 8 basis points from the previous week's 5.03%, with points declining to 0.99 from 1.34 (including the origination fee) for loans with an 80% percent loan-to-value ratio, the association reported. The average contract interest rate for 15-year FRMs also declined by 8 bps to 4.27%. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs declined by 3 bps to 6.77% from 6.80%.

Top Three See Servicing Market Share Drop Slightly

March 1, 2010

The nation's top three processors of residential loans saw their grip on the servicing market decline slightly in the fourth quarter, a sign that ultra low rates are causing more run-off than can be recaptured by these firms. According to new figures compiled by National Mortgage News and the Quarterly Data Report, Bank of America, Wells Fargo & Co., and Chase had a combined servicing market share of 52.79% at yearend, a slight decline from the 53.89% they had at September 30. The three, once again, ranked first, second, and third among all mortgage processors with B of A leading the pack: $2.16 trillion in receivables and a market share of 21.3%. Wells and Chase ranked second and third, respectively, with $1.8 trillion (market share: 17.7%) and $1.4 trillion (13.8% MS). B of A was able to grow its servicing portfolio by 5% year-over-year. Wells had a 1% gain but Chase saw its receivables decline by 7%, according to NMN/QDR.

Private MI Demand Drops to New Low

February 26, 2010

The dollar volume of primary new mortgage insurance written in January was lower than any month in 2009, according to the Mortgage Insurance Cos. of America. Only $4.16 billion of new insurance was written in January. The worst month in 2009 was the $4.76 billion written in October. For the fourth consecutive month the number of new applications received has declined. There were only 19,438 applications for the month, down from 26,284 in December (the lowest in 2009) and 75,614 in January 2009 (the best month in this category last year). The amount of primary insurance-in-force among the private MIs continued to slide. In January 2009 it was $949.3 billion. By December it fell to $863.4 billion and at the end of January 2010, it was $851 billion. The cure/default ratio for January 2010 was 62%, with 61,195 cures and 98,685 defaults. This is the highest number of defaults since January 2009's 106,482.

NAR: Declining Home Inventory a Good Sign

February 26, 2010

Even though existing-home sales fell 7.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units, the inventory of available homes is continuing to shrink, a sign that housing values might be stabilizing, according to the National Association of Realtors. In January inventory fell 0.5% to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace. In December the number was better (a 7.2-month supply) but NAR says "raw unsold inventory" is 9.6% below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006. "Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory," said NAR. The January existing home sale figure compares to a downwardly revised pace of 5.44 million in December. The results, the weakest since June, were worse than many housing economists had forecast. Mr. Yun admitted that the sales numbers are "not good." The trade group hopes that sales will spike this spring as consumers move to take advantage of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit which is set to expire in late April. The median sales price was $164,700, unchanged from a year earlier and down 3.4% from December.

Residential Production by Thrifts Plunge

February 25, 2010

Thrift institutions funded just $34.4 billion of single-family loans in the fourth quarter, about one-third of what they originated in the first quarter, according to new figures compiled by the Office of Thrift Supervision. The weak performance stems, in part, from the declining number of S&Ls. In the fourth quarter, the number of institutions fell to 765, a decline of 45 firms. The chief reason for the drop: company failures. The remaining thrifts have $942 billion of assets, including $273 billion in one- to four-family loans and $141 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Nearly 5% of the single-family loans are seriously delinquent, compared to 3.7% a year ago, but down from 5.7% in the third quarter. For all of 2009, S&Ls originated $224 billion of home mortgages — a 35% decline from the year before. (Of course, in 2008 Countrywide Financial Corp., then the nation's largest home funder, was still in business. CFC had a thrift charter.) Thrifts posted a $55 million profit for the fourth quarter and a $29 million profit for the whole year. In 2008, the thrift industry suffered through $15.8 billion of losses. "Although we are encouraged that the industry performance has moved in a positive direction, unemployment is still running high and home prices are still down in many parts of the country," said OTS acting director John Bowman.

Banks' Retail Residential Volumes Slip Sequentially in Quarter

February 25, 2010

Commercial banks originated $146 billion of residential loans through their branches and other retail outlets in the fourth quarter, an 11% sequential decline, according to new figures compiled by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. However, compared to same period a year earlier, retail production rose 120%. The latest FDIC numbers show that 869 commercial banks and savings institutions are active in residential finance, up from 667 firms in the fourth quarter of 2008. (Currently, the profit margins on home lending remain strong thanks to a wide yield curve.) Banks are required to report origination data if they have assets of $1 billion or greater or originated $10 million or more of one-to-four family loans in the past two quarters. The FDIC figures also show banks had a strong year in terms of correspondent production: institutions purchased $248 billion of first-lien residential loans in the fourth quarter, compared to $148 billion in the same period a year earlier.